Rare 'Level 4 out of 5' Risk for Severe Storms Monday: What Mid-Atlantic Residents Need to Know
- Cheryl Nelson
- Mar 15
- 6 min read
Updated: Mar 15
Preparedness guide from meteorologist Cheryl Nelson of Prepare With Cher
Parts of Virginia and North Carolina — including portions of Hampton Roads — are under a Level 4 out of 5 “Moderate Risk” for severe weather from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center for Monday, March 16.
For our area, that’s relatively rare. Most of the time we see Level 1 (Marginal) or Level 2 (Slight) risks. A Level 4 means meteorologists have higher confidence that numerous severe storms could occur, some capable of producing significant damage.
The Storm Prediction Center rarely issues a "Moderate Risk" for our region, which is why forecasters are watching Monday’s setup closely. When this level of risk is issued, it typically signals that the atmosphere is unusually supportive of organized severe thunderstorms capable of producing widespread damaging winds and tornadoes.
Let’s break down what the threats are, why the atmosphere is primed for severe storms, the timing, and what you should do now to prepare.
What the Severe Weather Threats Are
Local meteorologists, along with meteorologists from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center, are watching the possibility of multiple hazards with this system.
1. Damaging Straight-Line Winds (Primary Threat)
The biggest concern is powerful thunderstorm winds that could exceed 58 mph (the wind threshold for a severe thunderstorm warning).
These winds can:
Knock down trees and power lines
Cause power outages
Damage roofs and siding
Toss outdoor furniture and debris
Straight-line winds from thunderstorms can sometimes cause damage similar to a weak tornado.
2. Tornadoes
The environment may also support a few tornadoes, and possibly stronger tornadoes in isolated cases.
Tornadoes can form:
Within rotating supercell thunderstorms
Along a squall line moving quickly across the region
The tornado risk is one of the reasons the SPC issued the Moderate Risk outlook.
3. Large Hail
Some storms could also produce hail, although this is typically a secondary threat compared to wind and tornadoes.
Why the Atmosphere Is Favorable for Severe Storms
Severe thunderstorms require a combination of four main ingredients.
Monday's forecast shows all of them coming together.
1. Moisture
Warm, humid air moving north from the Gulf and Atlantic provides the fuel storms need.
Moisture increases instability, allowing storms to grow taller and stronger.
2. Instability
When warm, moist air near the ground rises into cooler air aloft, the atmosphere becomes unstable. That instability helps thunderstorms grow vertically and intensify.
3. Wind Shear
One of the most important ingredients on Monday is strong wind shear.
Wind shear means winds change speed and direction with height.
This allows storms to:
Rotate
Organize into supercells
Produce tornadoes
Strong wind shear also helps storms maintain intensity over long distances.
4. Lift
Storms also need a trigger to get started. In this case, a powerful cold front and upper-level storm system moving across the eastern U.S. will provide the lift needed to spark thunderstorms. This lift will likely organize storms into a fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms. When strong instability, deep moisture, and powerful wind shear overlap like this, storms can organize quickly and become capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes.
Timing for Hampton Roads
Timing will continue to be refined, but the current thinking is:
Late Morning – Early Afternoon
Storms begin approaching from the west.
Afternoon
The main line of storms moves into eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina.
Late Afternoon – Early Evening
Storms push through and exit the coast during the early evening.
Severe weather is most likely during the afternoon hours when daytime heating increases instability.
Tornado Watches and Warnings
Before storms arrive, you may see the following alerts issued.
Tornado Watch
A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes to develop.
A watch usually covers a large region and lasts several hours.
This is your signal to be ready to act quickly.
A tornado watch is the time to review your safety plan, monitor weather updates closely, and be ready to move to your safe place quickly if a warning is issued.
Tornado Warning
A tornado warning means:
A tornado has been detected on radar, or
A tornado has been spotted by a trained observer
When a warning is issued for your location, you should take shelter immediately.
What to Do NOW (Before a Tornado Watch Is Issued)
Many people wait until warnings are issued to prepare, but the best time to prepare is before storms arrive.
Here’s what I recommend as part of Prepare With Cher preparedness planning.
Secure Your Yard
Strong winds can turn outdoor objects into dangerous projectiles.
Bring inside or secure:
Patio furniture
Trash cans
Grills
Garden decorations
Trampolines
Toys
Charge Devices
Power outages are possible.
Charge:
Phones
Backup battery packs
Laptops
Flashlights
Identify Your Safe Room
The safest places include:
Basement
Storm shelter
Interior room on the lowest level
Closet or bathroom with no windows
Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.
Plan for Pets
Make sure pets can quickly go with you to your safe place.
Keep:
Leashes
Carriers
Pet food and water nearby
Multiple Ways to Receive Warnings
Never rely on just one method.
Use:
Smartphone weather alerts
Local TV meteorologists
Weather apps
A NOAA Weather Radio
Write Down a List of Important Phone Numbers
Local emergency services
Workplaces and schools
Family and friends
Utility companies
Insurance companies
Bank
What to Put in Your Safe Room
If a tornado warning is issued, you may be in your safe place for several minutes or longer if multiple storms move through. Consider keeping a small tornado safety kit ready to grab quickly.
Items to have in your safe room:
• Bike or sports helmets
• Thick blankets or sleeping bags and pillows
• Flashlight or headlamp
• Phone + portable charger
• NOAA Weather Radio
• Closed-toe shoes
• First aid kit
• Bottled water
• Whistle
• Pet supplies (leash, carrier, food, water)
• Important medications
Even something as simple as keeping a helmet and flashlight in your safe room can make a big difference.
Other Smart Things to Do Before Storms Arrive
When severe weather is expected, a few small actions can make a big difference.
Before storms arrive:
• Park vehicles in the garage if possible
• Move vehicles away from large trees if you don’t have a garage
• Close and latch windows
• Bring pets indoors early
• Turn on emergency alerts on your phone
• Check in with elderly neighbors or family members
• Avoid unnecessary travel during the main storm window
• Review your family plan so everyone knows where to go
Preparedness isn’t about fear — it’s about being ready so you can act quickly if needed.
What to Do During a Tornado Warning
If a tornado warning is issued for your area:
Go to your safe room immediately.
Get to an interior room on the lowest level of your building.
Stay away from windows and exterior walls.
Protect your head with a helmet, pillow, or thick blanket.
Bring pets with you if possible.
If you are in a mobile home, leave immediately and go to a sturdy building.
If you are in a vehicle and cannot reach shelter, your options may include:
Getting into a sturdy building, or
Lying flat in a low ditch away from trees and power lines.
Never try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle if it is nearby.
Three Things Meteorologists Wish Everyone Knew Before a Tornado
After more than two decades as a meteorologist, there are a few things I wish more people understood before severe weather arrives.
Put Shoes on Before You Go to Your Safe Room
After storms, the ground is often covered with broken glass, nails, and debris.
Having closed-toe shoes nearby can prevent injuries if you have to walk through damaged areas.
Wear a Helmet if You Have One
Head injuries are one of the leading causes of injury during tornadoes.
A bike helmet or sports helmet can provide critical protection from falling or flying debris.
Your Phone May Not Alert You if It’s on Silent
Wireless emergency alerts don’t always behave the same way on every device.
That’s why it’s important to have multiple ways to receive warnings, including:
Local meteorologists
Weather apps
NOAA Weather Radio
A Bonus Tip Most People Don’t Think About
Bring Your Pets Into the Safe Room
People sometimes lose valuable seconds trying to find hiding pets when warnings are issued.
If severe storms are expected, bring pets inside early and keep leashes or carriers near your safe place.
Final Thoughts
Level 4 out of 5 "Moderate Risk" days don’t happen often in our area, but when they do, they are the days meteorologists pay especially close attention because the potential exists for multiple severe storms.
While severe weather events like this can sound alarming, being prepared dramatically reduces risk.
The key is to:
Stay informed
Have a plan
Act quickly if warnings are issued
Continue to monitor updates from the National Weather Service and your local meteorologists as the forecast evolves.
Preparedness isn’t about panic.
It’s about being ready. Please stay safe!
Cheryl Nelson, Meteorologist, CBM
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**** If you live in Virginia or North Carolina, consider sharing this checklist with friends and family tonight so everyone is prepared.
